The Harbinger GTN Alerts 2/18/15

The return of the GTN Alert series after a weekend hiatus.  I have improved my infrastructure for pulling data, so I do not need any volunteers to pull their servers data any more!  I will be leveling alts on each server through their starting planet to access the GTN on the fleet, but if you’d like your server to get GTN Alerts sooner, just send me an email or reach out to me on Twitter to coordinate a Galactic Stronghold key so that my level 1 alt can use your GTN terminal without the leveling time delay. Enough about other servers, let’s take a look at The Harbinger with a new format and some ease-of-use adjustments mixed into the content.  The new Top Action Items section will begin the GTN Alert for the day with the handful of best take-away thoughts or actionable items from my analysis, perfect for the SWTOR player who thinks like a CEO and just wants the 30 second summary of actionable items rather than the details.  For more analysis-oriented readers, there is a brave new world of graphs and data parsing available with the completion of my new data infrastructure tool this weekend.  The data analysis options will continue to expand as I build out the database architecture and quick charting tools more over time as well.  On to the content…

Top Action Items:

  1. List Adaptive Circuitry for sale between 33,000 and 40,000 per unit.
  2. List Midlithe Crystal at any price above 25,000 per unit.
  3. Buy Hemostatic Gel under 165 per unit, sell to vendor for instantaneous arbitrage profit.
  4. Buy Trimantium under 250 per unit, sell to vendor for instantaneous arbitrage profit.
  5. Buy Veda Cloth under 165 per unit, sell to vendor for instantaneous arbitrage profit.
  6. List as much Molytex as you can gather on Yavin 4 at 1,200 to 1,500 per unit for some quick but large profit.
  7. List Augmentation Kit MK-10 anywhere above 50,000 per unit for sure, very inflated prices relative to recent past.

Continue reading for more detailed analysis of current GTN market conditions and opportunities…

Adaptive Circuitry

Summary: Sellers market at current lowest offer of 32,900 with nearly 8x unit cost multiple already, but supply gap exists just above this already attractive price so list above current lowest offer but below 40,000 per unit.

Analysis Notes: supply has been more interesting than the price movements over the past few weeks, which gives me a chance to show off one of the new graphs that is now possible with my improved data infrastructure in place!  The supply level has plateaued well below its levels earlier in February when total available units were between 1,000 and 3,000 each day, while the new range over the past week has been 500-1,000 units available each day.  However, I can now analyze the patterns within the current supply, such as the price-to-quantity scatter density plot below.  The new analysis reveals a market that has a small number of units near the current lowest offered price of 32,900 but a meaningful gap before the main cluster of supply around 40,000 credits, which creates an appealing price range to list within the orange box between the two groups: Harb Adaptive Circuitry QuantCloud_2.18.15

Autoimmune Regulator

Summary: Poor time to sell, hold on to your inventory if you don’t need to sell in the short-term or list near 28,000 and wait for market to come to you at that roughly 7x unit cost multiple price point.

Analysis Notes: supply has been fairly steady over the past 10 days, but the price is at the low end of its recent range currently with a lowest offer of 21,999 and the graph below does a great job illustrating what it looks like to have numerous smaller lots undercutting the high volume sellers in this material on The Harbinger.  The supply listed below 29,000 is about 5% of the total listed units, but that’s still a lot of cheap supply to be soaked up before the sellers in the more desirable price range come back into play for the next marginal buyer.  Side note, the price is almost twice this level on Jedi Covenant currently, just a stark dislocation in the price of Autoimmune Regulator across servers as well. Harb AI Reg Supplu_2.18.15

Doonium

Summary: Great opportunity to list units for sale between 20,000 and 28,000 per unit, which is 10% to 50% above its 20-day average lowest daily offer.  

Analysis Notes: There are three units listed at 19,333 but next lot isn’t until 29,000 where 331 of the 337 listed units in a very small price range.   The profit margins are very good any above 25,000 per unit and that is a historically rare price range to potentially come into play over the next 24-48 hours. Harb Doonium Supply Cloud_2.18.15 

Midlithe Crystal

Summary: Excellent sellers market this week.  Prices are setting new high water marks without any supply concerns, list anywhere north of 25,000 per unit to ensure 6x unit cost multiple or better!

Analysis Notes: The current price levels for this market segment are probably the strongest relative to the material’s 20-day average for lowest offer price.  There are no supply illusions here, roughly two-thirds of the 1,483 units available are listed between the current lowest offer price of 25,000 and 26,500 at the end of the day.  It will be very interesting to see if a new equilibrium is forming for Midlithe Crystal on The Harbinger, but it would be great news for anyone with a lot of it in storage. Harb Midlithe_2.18.15

Ottegan Silk

Summary: Brutal sellers market, no profits in sight.

Analysis Notes: There isn’t even much to analyze about this one…  Demand seems non-existent both in the data and by intuition due to the lack of uses for the material.

Verpine Fiber

Summary: The price volatility here is off the charts, literally.  We’ve seen lowest offer levels just shy of 15,000 in the past five days, but ended the day with a lowest offer under 500 per unit yesterday.

Analysis Notes: The massive price swings feel like an utter lack of demand in the market, but hard to quantify that impression.  There would certainly appear to be some chance of selling above its 4,188 credits unit cost at times, but not a material to consistently move significant volumes as a profit center most likely, but small enough market to try to corner it if you have some credits to buy up supply below 10,000 per unit consistently and list in the 12,000 to 16,000 range for profit margins of 300% to 400% if there are buyers in that pricing scenario.

Biocell Memory Core

Summary: There cannot possibly be buyers on the GTN willing to pay 625 per unit for this stuff, but that’s the current lowest offer.

Analysis Notes: If anything, the fact that we ended the day with a lowest offered price of 625 per unit with total quantity available down to 1,300 from Saturday’s 4,300 units available is hopefully a sign that the message is getting out that there’s no reason to list this material on the GTN near the vendor price just to watch it expire repeatedly.  It is still difficult to foresee any trades actually occurring in this material though.

Havod

Summary: Current lowest offer is in its normal, unprofitable range just below 200 credits per unit.  No reason to buy or sell on the GTN that I can see here.

Analysis Notes: The most consistent theme, if it’s blue and not an arbitrage opportunity, just move on…

Hemostatic Gel

Summary: ***ARBITRAGE*** Current lowest offer of 160 is below vendor standing bid of 165 per unit, so buy anything less than 165 on the GTN and sell to the vendors for free credits!

Analysis Notes: Sellers need to be more cognizant of when to just sell it to the vendor, but since there will always be irrational offers to sell some materials on the GTN you can at least help make the market more efficient by taking these free credits and clearing supply glut from the universe.

Hiridiu Crystal

Summary: No arbitrage, but also no meaningful profit to be had here.

Analysis Notes: there is a ton of supply listed at or near the current lowest offer around the 200 credits per unit, so no prospect of a price run imminent.

Trimantium

Summary: ***ARBITRAGE*** multiple  listings of units available below the vendor standing bid of 250 credits per unit for this material.  Buy anything below 250 for immediate and risk-free profit!

Analysis Notes: For some reason, this material has a higher vendor standing bid (250) than the other blue materials in the same tier (165) so arbitrage opportunities like this occur 2-3 days per week in my data for The Harbinger and most often during the middle of the week.

Veda Cloth

Summary: ***ARBITRAGE*** There are three stacks of x99 listed below the vendor standing offer of 165 per unit.  Buy anything less than 165 on the GTN and sell to the vendors for free credits!

Analysis Notes: I am continuously surprised by the frequency of these opportunities to make credits with no risk and barely any effort.

Anodyne Extract

Summary: Current lowest offer just below 900 per unit is 33% above the average since I began tracking it on The Harbinger, very strong sellers market and listing anywhere above 700 is relatively strong price historically.

Analysis Notes: The price has jumped in the last 3-5 days, but is holding that new price range pretty well so far.  Take caution against flooding the market with supply so much so that the price tanks, but good time to start listing a couple stacks each day near the current lowest offer to try to build a consistent sales volume north of 700 credits per unit. Harb Anodyne_2.18.15

Enigmatic Artifact Fragment

Summary: One of the most steady materials to list on the GTN for a while now, still holding my line at 1,200 per unit as the “sell above” line and you can’t go wrong.  

Analysis Notes: The current lowest offer was about 1,265 to finish the day, so comfortably in that sellers market territory.   Supply is right on its average as well, so nothing worrisome in the data, just a solid market at what appears to be a very mature equilibrium range.

Farium

Summary: The current lowest offer looks very weak for sellers, but one very under-priced listing is skewing the data.

Analysis Notes: While there was a lowest offer at 248 per unit to close the night, the lowest offer mark of greater significance is at 576 where the larger supply quantities are listed currently.  So avoid the outlier in the orange box and list near the 600 per unit range that has the majority of the total supply.  Harb Farium_2.18.15

Luminous Blue Crystal, Luminous Green Crystal, & Luminous Red Crystal

Summary: No actionable information to share.

Analysis Notes: No arbitrage opportunity, but no profit as a seller either it would appear.  Craft dyes for a better way to try to make some money off color crystals, but vendor liquidation also very viable and basically boosts your Yavin 4 daily mission profitability.

Metamorphic Cell Culture

Summary: Extremely dense supply structure with more than 97% of its always significant total quantity listed currently between 320 and 400 per unit.  

Analysis Notes: Not a very attractive market to enter with such heavy supply figures and less attractive pricing than other green materials.  I would recommend crafting 168 rating implants with your Bioanalysis materials and reverse-engineering them for Augmentation Slot Component MK-10’s rather than selling into this moderately profitable GTN situation.

Molytex

Summary: Demand for the material as an input for armorings and mods seems the most plausible explanation for its price level.  There is no lack of supply in the gathering nodes on Yavin 4, especially in the jungle area nearest the main base as well as the Massassi Village near the other end of the map, so gather a bunch and sell it more big profits!

Analysis Notes: Very interesting price movements over the past few weeks that might indicate a small group of sellers that are buying up supply listed below 1,400-1,500 per unit given the consistency with which it is returning to that range after new supply is listed closer to the current price.  Might just be the natural movements of the market for this material, but has the look of possible market-maker efforts to nudge the price norm to that upper end of the range more permanently.  This is the best bet currently for high volume, high profit material sales and I would recommend that anyone trying to break into selling materials on the GTN go gather as much Molytex as you can find on Yavin 4 to list on the GTN on The Harbinger. Harb Molytex_2.18.15

Ruusan Crystal

Summary: Sell between 1,000 and 1,600 per unit, but highest likelihood of sale occurring would be to list in the 1,000 to 1,200 per unit range.

Analysis Notes: Appealing sellers range highlighted below, once the lowest offer clears the market everything remaining for sale will be in the 1,200 to 1,600 per unit range.  Supply is very crowded at 4,295 which is nearly twice its average units listed, but there’s still profitability in the 1,000 to 1,200 range if you need some credits and want to sell this material.  Each seller has different priorities and patience levels, but you can run gathering missions and as long as you sell above 1,100 your net profit after GTN commission will still be 100%, or doubling your input cost, so that’s solid. Harb Ruusan Supply Clouds_2.18.15

Augmentation Kit MK-10

Summary: Prices are extremely high relative to prior norms, selling above 50,000 on The Harbinger is a rare opportunity that you don’t want to miss out on!

Analysis Notes: Other than an errant listing that I’m guessing was missing a “5” at the beginning, the price has gone from steady with some slow gains to a 20% jump above the prior norms.  Supply is not high, but it also is not terrible, so maybe demand has just picked up this much in the augmentation market, which would be great news for crafting community on The Harbinger!  I would sell above 50,000 as often as possible, but don’t be shy with some of your supply because these sell best in lots of 1-2 units since it is a high cost item that most people are going to buy piecemeal over time, so break your quantity into pairs and list at a variety of prices in the 50’s and see how high you can sell a duo! Harb MK-10 Kits_2.18.15

Augmentation Slot Component MK-10

Summary: Very thin supply that is 50% below average for The Harbinger already represents a sellers opportunity, but see below for even more analysis on the situation.

Analysis Notes: The current lowest offer of 5,500 is already 33% above average, but there is relatively little supply at that price.  There’s 496 units in that lower price group, which is nothing when it comes to components that are used in batches of 10 already.  The price of kits above might be a reaction to the lack of component supply, because the lowest current offers are relatively aligned.  If anything, this increases the opportunity to list in the higher sticker price kit market in hopes that component supplies deteriorate further leading to a spike in kit prices even more than already has happened.  If you’d rather sell components than craft, I’d list as many as you are willing to sell at 10,000 per unit, which would require kits to move up to 75,000-80,000 per kit to remain at parity with a 10,000 unit price of components! Harb MK-10 Comp Supply Cloud_2.18.15

Synth-net Implant Processor, Vanadium Flux, & Zoosha Solution

Summary: Nothing noteworthy with no arbitrage but also no sign of much demand at current prices above vendor offer of 800 per unit already.

Analysis Notes: Buy it wherever it’s cheapest, which is currently the crew skills vendor for 800 per unit.

As always, thank you for reading.  I truly appreciate your interest and please let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see in future content! – Andrew | SWTOR Economics

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