The Harbinger GTN Alerts 2/22/15

Top Opportunities for Sellers:

  1. List Adaptive Circuitry for sale between 38,000 and 42,000 per unit.

  2. List Anodyne Extract to sell in the 800-1,000 per unit range.

Top Opportunities for Buyers:

  1. If Midlithe Crystal falls below 20,000 per unit, consider buying up some supply and look to list it above 25,000 when prices make a comeback.

  2. If you lack Augmentation Slot Component MK-10 to craft Augmentation Kit MK-10 you can buy the former at or below 4,000 and list the latter at or above 50,000 for a 20,000 credit profit per Augmentation Kit MK-10 that sells.

 

Continue reading for more detailed analysis of current market conditions and opportunities…

 

Adaptive Circuitry

Summary: Sell, sell, sell!  Great material to sell most days, but the price just keeps on rising on The Harbinger lately.

Analysis Notes: The good times keep coming for anyone selling Adaptive Circuitry as a core profit strategy.  The current lowest price is not only the highest in nearly 30 days of data now, tonight’s low of 38,824 is 28% higher than the average lowest offering previously.  Total listed supply is down about 16% off its average, but supply has been struggling to keep up for over a week now.  Tonight’s recommended seller’s range is a little bit higher than last time, so keep listing marginally higher and maybe this trend can keep momentum through this week.

TH AC_2.22.15

 Autoimmune Regulator

Summary: The market is becoming less and less attractive for sellers, but current lowest offer of 20,000 is still a multiple of 4.6x unit cost, so not low enough for me to recommend buying based on The Harbinger’s recent history with this material.

Analysis Notes: The supply distribution is very clustered around 25,000 currently with 34% more units available than its recent average.  There’s one bulk seller holding strong near 30,000 with their listings, but the lowest offer hasn’t come near that level in a meaningful way since the end of January.  I would avoid selling below 25,000 for sure, but even at that price the market here is a bit lackluster compared to its peer group of materials.

TH Autoimmune Reg_2.22.15

Doonium

Summary: If you’re going to sell any this week, list it as soon as possible!  List between 23,000 and 26,000 per unit for higher likelihood to sell, list between 26,000 and 30,000 per unit to aim high on profit margins but risk no buyers making it to your price in the near-term.

Analysis Notes:  The price of Doonium the past three weeks has risen between Monday and Thursday by 10-20% each week.  The price tends to fall back somewhat on the weekends, but the overall trend is still positive for sellers of this material.  The cyclical nature of its price indicates that the lowest offer by Thursday would be in the 25,000-28,000 per unit range if the pattern repeats again.  I’m not sure how much weight to put into those prices though, because there may not be many or any buyers in the middle of the week to make it profitable in reality.

Midlithe Crystal

Summary: Decent sellers market, but more attractive if tonight’s lowest offer of 22,727 can migrate toward last week’s mid-week range of 25,000-26,000 per unit.

Analysis Notes: The biggest impediment to that ideal price move for sellers is that about 80% of Midlithe Crystal currently listed has more than 24 hours remaining on the market and is between the current lowest offer and 24,000 per unit, which are not especially motivating trading multiples for sellers.  However, it is still a good sellers market for The Harbinger on a relative basis because the average lowest offer in the data set is still below 20,000 per unit, so times have been worse in the last 30 days for sellers if that’s any solace.

Ottegan Silk

Summary: I was raised on the “Thumper Rule” from the rabbit in Bambi, “If you don’t have nothin’ nice to say, don’t say nothin’ at all!”  So I’m not going to say anything about Ottegan Silk and just move on…

Verpine Fiber

Summary: Tonight’s lowest offer of 5,000 per unit is slightly above unit cost to acquire it, but that’s about all there is to say about it.

Analysis Notes: I would like to see BioWare raise the vendor liquidation prices of Ottegan Silk and Verpine Fiber so players have an outlet for the excess supply in the game currently.  It would be nice to see the vendor’s standing bid price at least equivalent to the unit cost to acquire the material, maybe that would put a more reasonable floor under these materials that should have value but lack valuable schematics that require them currently.  Just a thought, haven’t worked out all of the secondary and tertiary effects of the idea yet.

The Blues, et al (Biocell Memory Core, Havod, Hemostatic Gel, Hiridiu Crystal, Trimantium, & Veda Cloth)

Summary: No arbitrage trading opportunities, no profit opportunities as a seller, and unfathomable there would be demand from buyers.

Analysis Notes: I’m maintaining my approach of stockpiling a set amount of each and sell the rest to the vendor as they accumulate from crew missions.

Anodyne Extract

Summary: Strong sellers market relative to price history on The Harbinger.  If you have stacks taking up storage space, consider listing some in the 800-1,000 per unit range.

Analysis Notes: I’ve said before that the price movement with day-to-day moves straight from the low of the trading range to the top of the trading range seemed indicative of sellers buying up cheap supply below the unit cost to acquire the material, shown graphically as the green line below.  If so, they’ve been very successful and a lowest offer below the unit cost line has not been recorded in my data in nearly two weeks.  The trading range seems to have shifted upward with the prior upper band providing a resistance level as the new lower band for the 800-1,000 range that I used above as my target range to sell into at the top of the past 10 days range.  You don’t see too many 2x or greater price multiples in the green materials, so definitely worth watching for any Bioanalysts out there.

TH AnEx Lined

Enigmatic Artifact Fragment

Summary: Possibly the most mature material market in the Grade 11 tier and seemingly at an equilibrium for supply and demand.  Very tight range for lowest offer this month, but selling at or above 1,200 per unit still very reasonable and attractive for most sellers.

Analysis Notes: The lowest offering range for February is basically 1,000 to 1,400 per unit with an average between 1,200-1,300 comfortably in the middle.  Current lowest offer of 1,263 per unit couldn’t be more “normal” if it tried, but not a bad thing in this case.  For materials like this, I might condense the commentary to a simple table with its current lowest listing, current median listing, 30-day average lowest listed price, etc. to make it quick and easy to communicate a lack of change to the status quo like this is showing more often than not.

Farium

Summary: Nothing exceptional, but if you gather it on Yavin while running dailies and have more than you can craft into something profitable, certainly better to sell on GTN than to vendor.

Analysis Notes:  The biggest issue with this material over time is the vast supply listed on the GTN consistently.  Current supply of 3,710 is even more problematic because it is 36% above average and there are a lot of units available in the immediate vicinity of its current lowest offer of 606 credits per unit.  The price isn’t terrible, but it is often at or near the crew skill mission unit cost to acquire, so only profitable to sell supply that’s been gathered on Yavin really.

TH Farium_2.22.15

Luminous Blue CrystalLuminous Green Crystal, & Luminous Red Crystal

Summary: The most profitable opportunity is arbitrage trading from GTN to vendor, but not currently available so not much else to consider at the moment.  

Metamorphic Cell Culture

Summary: Oddly disconnected from the trends in Anodyne Extract over the past month and instead still languishing in a range of 150-300 credits per unit lowest offer most days.  Not an attractive market for buyers or sellers, so seems like an unexpected equilibrium range that has been very persistent.

Analysis Notes: Since the acquisition process and demand sources for the two Grade 11 Bioanalysis green materials are fairly similar, the stark differentiation of their GTN markets seems inexplicable.  This may lend credence to the possibility that Anodyne Extract is being managed by one or more skillful GTN sellers who are buying up the low end of the listings to maintain better and more stable prices than “natural” for current tier Bioanalysis materials. Also noteworthy that most of my commentary on Autoimmune Regulator has been less and less positive over time, so maybe there’s a broader issue with Bioanalysis being too prevalent or something?

Molytex

Summary: Solid price for new sellers to enter the market heading into the week, listing in the 1,200-1,500 per unit price range is typically lucrative and appears able to move some volume through the GTN in that range.

Analysis Notes: The price took a dive over the weekend to the lowest offer in my data for The Harbinger at 685 yesterday, but snapped back into its normal range this evening with 1,263 as the lowest listed price.  I’d avoid becoming a seller below the 1,200-1,500 range because you should be able to sell in that range 4-5 days per week on this server, but the price does tend to be a bit more volatile than many other materials.

TH Molytex_2.22.15

Ruusan Crystal

Summary: The current lowest price of 1,000 is slightly below average, but supply is over 200% the average units available (see below for more on that supply number).  I’d wait a few days before listing any new units for sale.

Analysis Notes: The current supply listed is 5,884 which is a massive number of units, but that’s just the surface level.  There is a super-seller that is currently listing 4,977 of those units on The Harbinger, which is incredibly impressive.  Just selling that many Ruusan Crystal to a vendor would be 273,735 credits in value!  The impact for everyone else is that there’s no point listing any Ruusan Crystal above the 1,010 per unit price that this seller has set on all their units, because no one is buying Ruusan Crystal for more than that price in the next two days for sure.  Since that price is fine but not great, I’d wait until Tuesday and see if that seller leaves the market at least partially to bring supply back into normal levels and have a chance at prices rising above that 1,010 listing again.

Augmentation Kit MK-10

Summary: No longer selling in the 54,000-58,000 range of late last week, but current lowest offer of 49,000 is still comfortably above average.

Analysis Notes: Poor sellers market relative to last week disguises the normalcy of current market.  The commentary below regarding components also illuminates the relative value sellers can find here still.

Augmentation Slot Component MK-10

Summary: Price has come back into alignment with long-term average for lowest offered price after a run last week.  The price is very undervalued compared to the Augmentation Kit MK-10 price level though.

Analysis Notes: I’d recommend buying up any supply at or below the current lowest offer of 4,000 per unit and crafting the kits.  If you use the maximized critical chance scenario for the crafting you will net about 20,000 credit profit on each Augmentation Kit MK-10 that you can sell at or above 50,000 credits, which is a very solid profit.  It’s still cheaper to make your own components via reverse-engineering, but this could boost the volume of production at an attractive profit margin as well.

Synth-net Implant Processor, Vanadium Flux, & Zoosha Solution

Summary: There is a strong possibility that these will be left off the full data set sooner than later, maybe just a quick pull of current lowest listed offer or something.

 

As always, thank you for reading.  I truly appreciate your interest and please let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see in future content!

– Andrew | SWTOR Economics

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