Jedi Covenant GTN Alerts 2/22/15

Top Opportunities for Sellers:

  1. List Adaptive Circuitry for sale in 37,500-42,500 range.

  2. List Midlithe Crystal for sale at or above 35,000 per unit.

Top Opportunities for Buyers:

  1. Consider buying Doonium listed below 15,000 per unit if prices continue to fall.

  2. Consider buying Augmentation Slot Component MK-10 below 5,000 per unit if prices continue to fall.

  3. Buy Synth-net Implant Processor for 760 credits before going to the vendor and paying 800 credits.

 

Continue reading for more detailed analysis of current market conditions and opportunities…

 

Adaptive Circuitry

Summary: Current lowest price has regressed from last week’s highs, but still good entry point for sellers.

Analysis Notes: The old trading range prior to last week’s breakout to the upside was steady in the 28,000 to 38,000 for weeks, but last week changed the range.  If the current lowest offer level can avoid being undercut too much in the next few days, we may see a new range take hold with 38,000 as the new support level and 48,000 as our new resistance level.  (Quick terminology note: Support levels are a “floor” where demand becomes dominant and the price tends to stop falling, resistance levels are ceilings where the supply becomes so excessive as sellers rush into the market that the price tends to stop rising.  Both a technical trading terms, but I’m more and more convicted that the GTN market broadly shows similar patterns.)

JC AC_2.22.15

 Autoimmune Regulator

Summary: Price in line with 30-day average for low price available despite spike in supply to twice its 30-day average.  If you list at or above 30,000 per unit the price multiple starts at 7x unit cost to acquire, so very attractive prices on an absolute profit basis even if relative price is just average compared to recent Jedi Covenant history.

Analysis Notes:  Supply jump came from a single seller more or less in this case.  The average quantity available is just 163 units for this material on Jedi Covenant and someone brought more than 200 units to market late Saturday night, but since it is all listed at a very smart price of 33,900 it did not cause prices to plummet.  Definitely list between the current lowest offer and this price if you want any chance of a sale before this lot expires late Monday night though.

Doonium

Summary: Not a good time to become a seller with the overnight lowest offer of 16,499 representing a 12% discount to the 30-day average price.

Analysis Notes:  If you are low on Doonium, be ready to buy if it falls below 15,000 per unit for a relatively attractive buying opportunity.  As a seller, I’d wait a few days and see if it can make another run north of 20,000 per unit before listing additional supply, but you can always list above 20,000 and see if it comes to you over the 48 hour listing.

Midlithe Crystal

Summary: Strong sellers market in last alert has only gotten better for sellers of this material on Jedi Covenant.  Current lowest offer of 35,000 is not back to last week’s highs, but still 33% above 30-day average lowest price.

Analysis Notes: The lack of supply at times in the past couple weeks is likely contributing to the volatile rise in prices for Midlithe Crystal on Jedi Covenant.  Just 10 days ago I wrote that anything about 25,000 was rare selling opportunity, which at the time it was!  Now the lowest offer on the market is another 10,000 credits higher and supply still hasn’t come back into the market.  If you’re sitting on a bunch of Midlithe Crystal it’s definitely time to make some credits on the GTN if you can land the 8.4x unit cost multiple that 35,000 per unit nets you.

JC Midlithe_2.22.15

Ottegan Silk

Summary: I’m not going to leave a purple, top-tier materials off the list completely… No profit opportunities to recommend at present.

Verpine Fiber

Summary: Continues its highly sporadic run across the price spectrum, sell it if you can near current lowest offer of 14,999 but almost zero supply overnight, so once that returns the undercutting will be painful probably.

Analysis Notes: The most cyclical ride on the GTN continues to hold serve.  Like clockwork, we’re starting the week with almost no supply out there and prices back to their highs.  If the pattern repeats again we will see supply slowly list again through the week bringing prices back into the 7,000-10,000 per unit range before a weekend supply spike pulls prices into the 4,500-7,000 range possibly.  If you can time it and there are buyers, definitely the best time to sell is Monday or Tuesday it appears, but not sure if you’ll find buyers here.

JC Verpine_2.22.15

 

The Blues, et al (Biocell Memory Core, Havod, Hemostatic Gel, Hiridiu Crystal, Trimantium, & Veda Cloth)

Summary: No arbitrage trading opportunities, although a few materials are just a handful of undercuts away.  Arbitrage is only interesting thing to watch for in these materials markets currently.

Analysis Notes: I’m maintaining my approach of stockpiling a set amount of each and sell the rest to the vendor as they accumulate from crew missions.

Anodyne Extract

Summary: Price is solid for sellers, but supply is 78% above 30-day average and very densely packed near current lowest offer so no entry point for much additional volume.

Analysis Notes: The market is fairly saturated with just over 3,000 units available and the vast majority in a tight price range from the current lowest offer of 787 credits per unit through about 1,000 credits per unit.  Not a lot of breathing room for new sellers until some of that supply clears the market.

JC Anodyne Ex_2.22.15

Enigmatic Artifact Fragment

Summary: Terrible sellers market on a relative basis with current low of 950 per unit 29% below the 30-day average lowest price which is just above 1,300 per unit.

Analysis Notes: The old target sellers range of 1,450-2,000 per unit seems like a fleeting memory now.  I’d aim for 1,200-1,500 if you are listing new supply heading into the weekdays.

Farium

Summary: The overnight lowest offer of 620 credits per unit is a 23% premium price, so relatively attractive sellers market anywhere above that 30-day average low price of 505 per unit.

Analysis Notes: The supply is very consistent between 2,500-4,500 over the past 30 days with very few exceptions, so it appears to be a very mature market at equilibrium still.  The price movements seem like the rational fluctuations of supply and demand within the equilibrium range, which makes for consistent, but not exceptional, selling opportunities.

Luminous Blue Crystal, Luminous Green Crystal, & Luminous Red Crystal

Summary: No arbitrage profits to be had, no other opportunities in sight either.

Metamorphic Cell Culture

Summary: Overnight lowest offer down at 177 per unit is low margin territory even if gathering for free. Much better off crafting 168 rating green gear to reverse-engineering into Augmentation Slot Component MK-10 for better return on investment.

Molytex

Summary: Strong sellers market with lowest offer of 1,500 overnight, holding the top end of its trading range.

Analysis Notes: The overnight lowest offer was roughly 3x unit cost from crew skill missions, let alone any Molytex you’ve gathered on Yavin.  Go spend some quality time in the Massassi Village and you can make a ton of money selling Scavenging materials currently on Jedi Covenant.  Supply is right at average levels around 1,600 units despite relatively strong pricing at 17% above the average lowest offer.  I am a seller anywhere north of 1,200 with as many units as I can get my hands on, the demand for this material is very high on the GTN most days.

Ruusan Crystal

Summary: Very consistent sellers market in the 900-1,000 per unit range continues into the new week, but the occasional jaunts above that range pull the 30-day average lowest price higher.

Analysis Notes: The weekends tend to bring price pops in this material, which is somewhat unique.  Supply is very high right now at 39% greater than its average on Jedi Covenant.  There are over 3,100 units available total, but more impact is felt from the roughly 1,800 units listed within 200 credits of the current lowest offer of 900 per unit.  There little chance of a breakout above 1,100 per unit until that supply either expires or is bought up, so that’s the ceiling on the material for the day at least.

JC Ruusan_2.22.15

Augmentation Kit MK-10

Summary: The current lowest offer of 51,000 is a very strong entry point for sellers.

Analysis Notes:  While the total supply of 294 units is about half the average for Jedi Covenant, what supply there is remains quite densely clustered between 51,000 and 56,000 which makes the market feel much more saturated than total volume would suggest.  Still the best opportunity going though, craft as many as you can with you best critical chance companions and farm components with everyone else to make millions of credits if you’re new to this part of the game.

Augmentation Slot Component MK-10

Summary: Overnight lowest offer rebounded from Saturday’s low of 4,167 to 5,250 but both are still well below the average lowest offer of 6,463 previously.

Analysis Notes: The quick math that I use for converting the value of components to the value of kits is (component)*(7.7) = (implied kit) and the difference between the (implied kit) price and the GTN going rate for kits is your hypothetical profit margin if you buy components and craft the kits for sale.  The current prices leave 10,000 or less in potential profit, but if these fall back below 5,000 the profit margin becomes much more attractive.

Synth-net Implant Processor

Summary: There are currently nearly 2,000 units listed for 760 per unit (or a few at 780 per unit) which is a 10% (or 5%) discount to the unit cost of 800 to buy from the crew skill vendor.  Buy it on sale if you’re light.

Vanadium Flux & Zoosha Solution

Summary: No sale here unfortunately, just premium prices units hoping for a desperate buyer without a fleet pass or legacy perk to buy from the vendor in a pinch.

 

As always, thank you for reading.  I truly appreciate your interest and please let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see in future content!

– Andrew | SWTOR Economics

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9 thoughts on “Jedi Covenant GTN Alerts 2/22/15

  1. “List Midlithe Crystal for sale at or above 35,000 per unit.”

    So as a long-time crafter, I can’t help but wonder about items like that. Do they actually sell? Personally, I have never and will never buy them for that price, or even a tenth of that price. I see this with a lot of items.

    Listing doesn’t always mean selling, right?

    I suppose I could list some at the going rate on my server to see if they sell to answer my question. But I’m curious in the analysis that you’ve done if you really believe that crafting materials, even tough to obtain artifact level ones like Midlithe Crystals, actually sell with any regularity at that sort of price point.

    Like

    • One of my end goals with this GTN project is to reach the point of having an “Inferred Trade Blotter” but that’s a ways off. The basis of that wishlist project can be applied to a specific case though to illustrate.

      I am tracking the data on a very granular level, which is why capacity has been a balancing act for me so far. The reason I don’t want to collect more shallow data for the efficiency improvement is that I can tell you that on Saturday there were two listing of 10 Midlithe Crystal at 33,000 credits per unit with “2d” as their time remaining. When I pulled Midlithe Crystal on Sunday those listings are no longer available on the GTN and the new lowest offer is 35,000 per unit. It is possible that the seller pulled the items and forfeited their deposits, but this is the pattern I’m seeing and basing those selling recommendations. In this example, a “2d” listing of 2 Midlithe Crystal for 42,585 also disappears within that time frame, while a group of “2d” listings at a unit price of 44,955 are still in place.

      There’s a ton of noise in this data, but combined with my anecdotal data from listing items based on these observations I think there’s validity to the conceptual framework to enough of an extent to be useful at least. I’m interested in everyone’s thoughts on the subject though?

      Like

      • Careful with those listing times. I’ve discovered that “2d” means any amount of time greater than 24 hours, even if it’s 24:00:01. Same is true with the other timeframes. If you pulled your Sunday data less than 24 hours after the Saturday pull, it would seem to suggest they probably sold. If you pulled it much more than 24 hours later, there’s still the possibility of a question.

        Like

        • That’s often an issue and leads to a lot of exclusions to avoid false positives, but in this case the pulls were less than 24h apart, so I know they didn’t expire. They could have been pulled still, but either pilled or sold for sure.

          Very inexact system, but the best I’ve come up with so far. I still prefer throwing a listing of q=1 out there to test if possible, but not always realistic for everything.

          Like

          • I can confirm that some higher priced crystals are moving. I prospected (correct term?) on a stack of 50 at 29k per and relisted them in stacks of 1 to 10 at 40k per. All of them sold within a couple of hours. During this period there were none listed between the 500 or so in large stacks at 29k and my smaller stacks at 40k.

            Like

          • Very good point about the size of the stack too. I don’t pay that enough credence sometimes, but a buyer that needs a small quantity for a crafting priority will overpay for a small quantity rather than minimize unit cost for a full x99 stack.

            Like

  2. Hey, awesome work!

    Now I don’t have to print my spreadsheets out on my bedsheets…. been loooking for an economy site for ToR for ages.

    Great job!

    Like

  3. Hi terrific website! Does running a blog similar to this require a lot of work?
    I’ve very little expertise in computer programming but I had been hoping
    to start my own blog soon. Anyways, should you have
    any ideas or techniques for new blog owners please share.
    I understand this is off subject but I just needed to ask.
    Many thanks!

    Like

    • It definitely takes more work than I anticipated going into it, but that’s mostly self-determined. I don’t have to do any of it, but my self-imposed goals on posting frequency and length and complexity sometimes strain the schedule. I dabble in computer programming, but definitely would not call myself a programmer, so I don’t think that is a requirement to be successful. My best tip is to build out the blog format (menus, theme, etc) before starting and then force yourself to stick with that framework for 3-6 months to avoid spending too much time tinkering with non-content stuff early on. Also, create accounts for the blog on all of the social media sites, even ones you don’t use personally. For instance, I was not a reddit user, but it’s by far my biggest source of views now. It was fun to answer a slightly tangential question, no worries about that! More than anything, blog about something you are passionate about because then the views are just a bonus when they come, you’re already enjoying the process anyway!

      Like

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