Shadowlands GTN Alerts 2/24/15

Quick SWTOR Economics Update: The long-awaited arrival of the third server to enter the GTN Alerts group is a very exciting post for me!  There have been many hours of trial and error improvements to my data infrastructure to get here, so it is a relief and exciting at the same time.  What this means is that the “on-deck” spot just opened up and I have a number of offers for stronghold access out there.  My plan is to reach out to those stronghold owners tonight and plant alts on as many of the remaining servers as possible this evening.  There’s a few days lag between initiating data gathering and having enough information to construct a meaningful first post, so that would put me on pace to roll out additional servers heading into the weekend at staggered times most likely.

Top Opportunities for Sellers:

  1. List Autoimmune Regulator for sale at or above 30,000 per unit for 7x or better multiple of unit cost.

  2. List Midlithe Crystal for sale in the 40,000-50,000 credits per unit range based on supply distribution.

Top Opportunities for Buyers:

  1. Vanadium Flux is available for about 15% cheaper than the 800 crew skill vendor price if you have room to store some for the future.

 

Continue reading for more detailed analysis of current market conditions and opportunities…

 

Adaptive Circuitry

Summary: Lowest offer has been steadily falling since Friday’s initial reading.  Supply is down from a high of 179 on Saturday but has bounced back some from yesterday’s low point.

Analysis Notes:  The price is significantly higher than The Harbinger and Jedi Covenant normal ranges with supply much lower than those servers’ normal levels as well.  The current multiple of the lowest offered price to the blended unit cost is an incredible 10.9x which is unheard of in my data for Adaptive Circuitry on the servers.  The supply is also very thinly with listed lots of just 1-5 units except one listing of 10 units.  A different volume level entirely what I’ve grown accustomed to on The Harbinger and Jedi Covenant.

Shadowlands AC_2.23.15

 Autoimmune Regulator

Summary: The lowest offer on the market sits at 30,000 per unit today with total supply at 114 units.

Analysis Notes: While that supply level sounds low, it is actually similar to the levels on the other servers currently.  Very strong sellers market at or above 30,000 per unit which equates to a multiple of 6.9x unit cost.  

Doonium

Summary: Currently 23,913 is the lowest offered price with supply just below 100 units total.  

Analysis Notes: The current price is nominally lower than the other Grade 11 purple materials, but unit cost of acquisition is lower for Doonium since Trimantium has better salvage value, so today’s lowest offer is still a multiple of 7.6x unit cost.  The market is still a good sellers entry point anywhere above 20,000 per unit based on the multiple, so nothing to fear here.

Midlithe Crystal

Summary: Price has jumped to 40,000 lowest offer this morning along with a more than 200% infusion to supply, great sellers market in the works if there’s demand at these prices levels.

Analysis Notes: The air is a bit thin up there with a 9.6x unit cost multiple, but Jedi Covenant had Midlithe Crystal lowest offers near or above 40,000 at least 4 days in the last 10 days, so it isn’t something without precedent elsewhere.  If there are buyers willing to pay up this is great pricing power for the sellers in the market currently, but that always means there’s a lot of room to undercut and still make a good profit as well.  There;s no need to undercut in the short-term at least though, because there’s just a single, lone lot of 10 units at that current lowest offer and then no more supply until 53,000 per unit.  If you have the credits, a market-making suggestion would be to buy up those 10 units at 400,000 total cost and list everything you can get your hands on at 50,000.  If you have the liquidity to keep buying up under-cutters and there are “buyers of need” that are a few Midlithe Crystal from crafting something, you could make a lot of credits in a hurry near 50,000 per unit.

Shadowlands Midlithe_2.24.15

Ottegan Silk

Summary: Nothing different about Shadowlands to suddenly make this valuable…

Verpine Fiber

Summary: Very interesting market compared to the other servers, after a few days of data it appears much higher priced with a current low today of 15,000 per unit and a lot of supply listed above 20,000 per unit.  I’m not sure if it is short-term wishful thinking or a persistent market difference, but I’m interested to follow it for a while and find out!

 

The Blues, et al (Biocell Memory Core, Havod, Hemostatic Gel, Hiridiu Crystal, Trimantium, & Veda Cloth)

Summary: Appears similar to the market for the blue materials on other servers, not a profitable venture for sellers.  Currently a very small arbitrage trading opportunity in Veda Cloth, but very small quantity and price gap leaves minimal profit for market-makers, but very close on a few other items as well.  You really need full stacks of x99 listed at least 10 credits below the vendor’s standing bid price to really make decent credits in bulk.

Analysis Notes: Remember to never list within 6% of the vendor standing bid price of 165 per unit for these items, except Trimantium at 250 per unit.  There were a lot of lowest listings at 167 overnight and you will net more credits selling to the vendor than on the GTN in that case because the GTN’s 6% commission will reduce your net payout to 157 credits if it sells for 167 credits gross.  It is not something that a market-maker can buy off the GTN and sell to the vendor for an arbitrage profit, it’s simply in the Bermuda Triangle of GTN profitability where both the buyer and seller are not profitable.

Anodyne Extract

Summary: Buyers market if you need more than you can gather on Yavin during the week.  The current lowest offer is nearly 50% less than the unit cost from the crew skill missions.

Analysis Notes: A textbook supply and demand inverse relationship in the last 24 hours.  The lowest available price had been steadily in the 750-850 range previously in my data set, but as supply came to market in the last 24 hours the price plummeted as undercutting became a self-perpetuating cycle of price destruction.  If there’s a billionaire market maven on Shadowlands it might be worth buying up the supply below the green line on the chart, which is the unit cost from crew skill missions, and either reselling in the prior range or crafting Augmentation Slot Components MK-10 via reverse-engineering of 168 rating gear.

Shadowlands Anodyne Ex_2.24.15

Enigmatic Artifact Fragment

Summary: Very solid sellers market pricing but a lot of supply clogging up the market for new entrants probably.

Analysis Notes: The supply distribution even looks like a wall barring entry of new sellers into the market!  There’s so much supply clustered around the current lowest offer 1,950 per unit that it would take a lot of demand to move the price upward, so new sellers have to choose between waiting until at least the “1d” portion of the supply expires tomorrow or undercutting into the high-teens.  The current lowest offer is at 3.7x multiple of unit cost, so there’s room to undercut the market and still make a lot of credits, even more so if you’ve been gathering the material for free on Yavin.

Shadowlands Enigmatic AF_2.24.15

Farium

Summary: Massive supply glut with 3,961 units currently available on the GTN.  The price is not very appealing, with a current lowest offer of 263 credits per unit, but it is profitable nonetheless if you’re gathering it on Yavin.

Luminous Blue Crystal, Luminous Green Crystal, & Luminous Red Crystal

Summary: No arbitrage opportunity for buyers, but lots of units listed in that aforementioned price range without any benefit to sellers either.

Metamorphic Cell Culture

Summary: Another material with a massive overload of supply in the market with 4,405 units for sale today.  The current lowest offer is down to 90 credits per unit which is nearly the vendor standing bid price of 85 credits per unit and arbitrage opportunities outside the color crystals are rare in the Grade 11 green materials on other servers.

Analysis Notes: The supply distribution is informative, because there’s only a small portion of the total supply listed under 100 credits per unit.  The median price is 257 credits per unit, which in this case might be a more useful metric to use since so little supply is listed near the current lowest offer and it deviates from the recent price history, while the median is in line the the prior few days of data.

Shadowlands MMCC_2.24.15

Molytex

Summary: A decent sellers market at 2.1x the unit cost that’s been very stable right around 1,000 credits per unit so far.  The profit margin isn’t exceptional but if you gather Molytex for free on Yavin it’s still good profit.

Ruusan Crystal

Summary: The price has bounced around quite a bit so far, but the current lowest offer of 1,591 seems to be near the top of the range so far compiled.  There are nearly 2,000 units listed currently and the listing prices are very tightly clustered in the 1,500-,2500 range today.

Augmentation Kit MK-10

Summary: The current lowest offer of 52,000 per Augmentation Kit MK-10 is very attractive for sellers, but that’s been common in my data collections on Shadowlands, so maybe it’s just the norm here.

Analysis Notes:  The kit market is higher margin than the component market, but the gap is fairly narrow currently here.  Buying components at their lowest offer and crafting with the maximized critical chance would only net about 10,000 profit which is not comparatively great relative to other servers at least.

Augmentation Slot Component MK-10

Summary: The current lowest price available is 5,387 credits per unit.  The most noteworthy aspect of this market segment today is that there are only big stacks listed, 298 units across four lots, near the low and then a handful of very overpriced units above that group.

Synth-net Implant Processor, Vanadium Flux, & Zoosha Solution

Summary: You can buy 198 units of Vanadium Flux for 747 credits per unit which is an attractive discount to the vendor standing offer of 800 credits per unit.  The other two materials have no such opportunities, but I’d be interested to hear from any sellers of these materials on Shadowlands (via email privately or in the comments if you prefer) to find out if you are finding demand above 800 credits per unit consistently on the server?

 

As always, thank you for reading.  I truly appreciate your interest and please let me know if there’s anything you’d like to see in future content!

– Andrew | SWTOR Economics

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3 thoughts on “Shadowlands GTN Alerts 2/24/15

  1. Great job! I was looking forward to the Shadowlands post. Based on my server hopping, I’d suggest that JC and Harbinger are more like outliers, with the materials pricing of Shadowlands representing more of the norm across most servers.

    Like

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