The Harbinger GTN Alerts 2/24/15

Still trying to find the sweet spot for presentation and formatting of the content, if you like one version or feature more than others I’d welcome any feedback to help drive the process of finding the ideal recurring format for this content.

Adaptive Circuitry

Current Lowest Offer: 38,000

Average Lowest Offer: 30,700

Current Supply: 1,297

Average Supply: 1,360

Analysis Summary: Price slightly off yesterday’s high but still 9.0x unit cost at today’s lowest offer price, so strong sellers market continues.  There is a lot of supply at or above the 40,000 per unit mark, but there are plenty of chances to pick a spot between the low offer of 38,000 and the lots at 39,000 and 40,000 or if you need credits badly there’s plenty of profit in the 35,000-38,000 range as well.

TH AC Supply_2.24.15

 Autoimmune Regulator

Current Lowest Offer: 22,424

Average Lowest Offer: 24,230

Current Supply: 284

Average Supply: 665

Analysis Summary: Total supply is already more than 50% below average, but the units on the GTN today are almost entirely listed between 23,000 and 25,000 which can make the available supply behave even smaller than it is in reality.  The current lowest offer is 5.2x unit cost but I maintain my previous outlook that selling at or above 25,000 is the desirable long-term situation for sellers on The Harbinger.  

Doonium

Current Lowest Offer: 17,778

Average Lowest Offer: 19,296

Current Supply: 243

Average Supply: 523

Analysis Summary: The current lowest offer is well below the next lowest offer of 21,154 so the outlook is not as bleak as that 9-unit undercut that presumably is just a seller in dire need of quick credits.  Any units that you can move at 20,000 or better is very profitable on both an absolute and relative basis, but even in the 18,000-20,000 credits per unit range the price is about a 6.0x multiple of unit cost.

Midlithe Crystal

Current Lowest Offer: 23,000

Average Lowest Offer: 20,062

Current Supply: 894

Average Supply: 1,516

Analysis Summary: Today’s market for Midlithe Crystal on The Harbinger could easily make an appearance in an economics text book.  The relationship between the lowest offer price and the supply available on the GTN over the past four data points is impressively inversely correlated.  The falling supply since Friday’s high of 1,817 units listed has reached 41% below average, while the price has recovered from slightly below average to the upper end of its range. The recent price range of 22,00-24,000 over the past few days are 10-20% above average for the lowest listing prices on the Harbinger typically, so very strong sellers market continues.
TH MC PQ Graph_2.24.15

Ottegan Silk

Current Lowest Offer: 345

Average Lowest Offer: 733

Current Supply: 1101

Average Supply: 544

Analysis Summary:  This is what the low end of an already brutal trading range looks like, still no profits in sight here.

Verpine Fiber

Current Lowest Offer: 9,985

Average Lowest Offer: 7,585

Current Supply: 113

Average Supply: 230

Analysis Summary: Not one of the most profitable materials to obtain via crew skill missions and sell on the GTN for profit, but Verpine Fiber almost certainly has the most interesting price and supply graph.  The cyclical nature of its price history is noticeable at first glance from a high level.  The most concerning signs for sellers are the progressively lower low’s, and to a lesser extent lower high’s, that the price has shown over the 3-4 cycles in the data so far.  The brightest glimmer of hope for a change in the trend is that the price is now a couple days overdue for what should have been its downturn to start the week, so maybe a new pattern will take hold this week.

TH Verpine PQ Graph_2.24.15

The Blues, et al (Biocell Memory Core, Havod, Hemostatic Gel, Hiridiu Crystal, Trimantium, & Veda Cloth)

Summary: No arbitrage trading opportunities, no profit opportunities as a seller.

Analysis Notes: Still seeing many listings across this group each day that make no sense for the seller because net of the GTN commission they would have been better off just selling to the vendor.  Very inefficient market currently due to the massive abundance of blue materials, so think of selling blues to the vendor as community service of sorts!

Anodyne Extract

Current Lowest Offer: 677

Average Lowest Offer: 692

Current Supply: 2,107

Average Supply: 2,415

Analysis Notes: The daily swings from the low of the trading range to the top of the trading range continue, with today’s data falling toward the lower end at 677 credits per unit.  Even though it is currently near the lower end of the trading range with 800-1,000 the model ideal sellers market, just 10 days ago the same price would have been cause for sellers to enter the market and list new units for sale.  Very strong sellers market that is developing in very interesting ways over the past 30 days or so.

TH Anodyne PQ Graph_2.24.15

Enigmatic Artifact Fragment

Current Lowest Offer: 1,197

Average Lowest Offer: 1,281

Current Supply: 976

Average Supply: 2,025

Analysis Notes: The narrow trading range continues to hold, but 1,000-1,400 is such a nice entry point for sellers that the stability is a great feature of this material for anyone trying to make credits by gathering a lot on Yavin and selling on the GTN.   The current lack of supply, less than 50% of average level, does offer a few unique opportunities as well.  The majority of the units listed are in lots of 99 units or close to that size, but that often creates supply gaps for smaller lots where buyers are willing to pay more per unit on maybe 20 units because it is still cheaper than 99 units total cost and the buyer may only need a few units to fill a short-term need.  I would recommend that anyone entering this market as a new seller list lots of 10-20 units initially to access that broader demand base.

TH EnAF Supply Bubbles_2.2415

Farium

Current Lowest Offer: 630

Average Lowest Offer: 595

Current Supply: 4,586

Average Supply: 2,862

Analysis Notes:  The current lowest offering price is slightly above average, but the supply glut in this market is significant, currently 60% more units available than average.  Additionally, as you can see on the graph below, the supply is very skewed toward the lower end of the current offering prices on the GTN with over 4,000 units listed between 630 and 909 credits per unit.  The best opportunity in the Farium market in the near future will be midday to evening on 2/25 when much of these units expire and create the potential for a rapid drop in supply and rise in price.

TH Farium Supply Bubbles_2.24.15

Luminous Blue CrystalLuminous Green Crystal, & Luminous Red Crystal

Summary: No arbitrage opportunities and so unexceptional that current v. average data isn’t even interesting.

Metamorphic Cell Culture

Current Lowest Offer: 152

Average Lowest Offer: 187

Current Supply: 3,971

Average Supply: 5,048

Analysis Notes: Even with price and supply both down about 20% off their average values, not many appealing angles on this material market for a seller.  The only chance at profits are gathering without cost on Yavin to sell on the GTN at these prices, but crafting 168 rating implants to reverse-engineer into Augmentation Slot Component MK-10 still appears to be the best use of the material since the profit margins in the augment supply line are much higher than this material market.

Molytex

Current Lowest Offer: 1,217

Average Lowest Offer: 1,248

Current Supply: 4,418

Average Supply: 3,249

Analysis Notes: The second best green material to sell in the Grade 11 tier most days behind Enigmatic Artifact Fragment and only on the grounds of volatility.  This market currently trades in a much wider range of 800-1,600 credits per unit compared to the aforementioned market which trades within 1,000-1,400 as discussed above.  The increased volatility can bring greater profit on the upper end of the range, but the lower end of the range spends much more time below 1,000 than Enigmatic Artifact Fragment in the recent past.  All of that said, when this is the difference between the materials it’s a sure sign that both are great sellers markets within this group of materials.  The most intriguing entry point appears to be the 1,500-3,500 credits per unit range for lots of 10 or 20 units each.  Especially with the 99 unit lots pricing above the current low of 1,217 per unit there should be strong demand for small, short-term crafting needs where the buyer will be willing to pay more per unit to minimize total cost.

TH Molytex Bubbles_2.24.15

 

Ruusan Crystal

Current Lowest Offer: 841

Average Lowest Offer: 1,061

Current Supply: 6,093

Average Supply: 3,002

Analysis Notes: The current supply listed is 6,093 which is a massive number of units, but by the time this is being read in the light of day the big seller discussed in the prior alert will have had 59 lots across two selling alts expire and remove about 4,500 units from the market.  This expiration is much needed and will hopefully make this market more nimble again after what felt like a 48 hour suspension since no one could overcome this massive supplier’s sway over the dynamics on the GTN.

*Special Note: I logged in to The Harbinger right before posting to check on those huge supply lots to include an update.  The lots have already been re-listed after expiring, but at an even lower price point near 800 credits per unit.  If this were my primary server, I would avoid listing until that big seller that’s trying to move a lot of volume cleared their supply through the market.  Even if that requires sitting out of the market for this material mostly or entirely for a week, sometimes that’s the best course of action because a committed seller (and anyone willing to cut about 200 credits per share off their re-listing price is committed to selling these units) is going to keep downward pressure on prices until their stock clears the market so why fight it.  If you’re sitting on a multi-million credit bank balance I’d even consider entering the market as a buyer for market-making purposes because at around 800 credits per unit there’s now 20% to 25% profit potential if prices then return to their average level with this excess supply off the market.  If you can then sell the supply in a more measured fashion over the next few weeks you could reap a big profit, but it would require about 3,000,000 credits of liquidity to consider that strategy in this case.

Augmentation Kit MK-10

Current Lowest Offer: 50,000

Average Lowest Offer: 46,113

Current Supply: 436

Average Supply: 488

Summary: No longer selling in the 54,000-58,000 range of late last week, but seems to be settling in around the 50,000 credits per unit level which is still very profitable for sellers while keeping costs low enough to not prevent most interested buyers from being able to provide demand at the current market price.

Analysis Notes: The best profit margins are still to be found in either the purple Grade 11 materials or in stockpiling your own Augmentation Slot Component MK-10 at very little cost by gathering green materials on Yavin to craft 168 rating gear to reverse-engineer.  The result can be 

Augmentation Slot Component MK-10

Current Lowest Offer: 6,900

Average Lowest Offer: 4,348

Current Supply: 1,335

Average Supply: 1,611

Analysis Notes: The price has risen a lot over the past 72 hours after touching 4,000 per unit on Sunday.  The current level appears unsustainable and only a few sellers need to jump in to see the lowest offer price decrease rapidly, but until that happens this is a uniquely appealing sellers market where the implied relative values of the kits and components actually favor Augmentation Slot Component MK-10 over Augmentation Kit MK-10 at current lowest offered price levels.  You are better off selling components at 7,000 or better with kits at 50,000.  If you have a plethora of components in storage and you were me, I’d list lots of 10 or 20 components at or above 6,000 until the kit price reacts to this market and moves above 60,000 but you can’t go wrong selling either of them, this is just about relative value at the margins.

TH Aug Comp PQ_2.24.15

Synth-net Implant Processor, Vanadium Flux, & Zoosha Solution

Summary: The Harbinger seems immune to the pricing that appears with some regularity on Jedi Covenant and already in the Shadowlands brief history where at least one of these materials can be bought on the GTN for less than the crew skills vendor standing offer of 800 credits per unit.  No such chance today either, so nothing of note in these materials.

 

As always, thank you for reading and may the force be with you!

– Andrew | SWTOR Economics

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