The Harbinger GTN Alerts 2/11/15

Another day, another set of notes and alerts for The Harbinger server of Star Wars: The Old Republic…

Purple Grade 11 Materials:

  • Adaptive Circuitry: finished the day with a low offer of 30,500 which is a 5% premium to its recent average with a quantity available of just 654, or one-third of its recent norm.  Good sellers market, especially with the openings created by total available being so much below normal.
  • Autoimmune Regulator: could hardly be more in equilibrium at 25,000 lowest offer and a little over 1,000 units available, both in line with both its overall and weekday-only recent averages.  Still an attractive point to list new supply though at a 5.8x multiple to acquisition cost.
  • Doonium: with supply down to just 211, 61% below its recent average, I expected to see the lowest offer price higher, but instead 17,000 is just marginally lower than average for The Harbinger, but like its predecessor this price point would still represent a strong 5.4x multiple of acquisition cost so it’s tough to call it a bad sellers market.
  • Midlithe Crystal: has slowly and quietly fallen to a new low in my data for The Harbinger over the past four days, settling in at a low offer of just 15,000 to end the day, which is only 3.6x multiple to the seller and 14% below the average low offer in the data set.  There’s no way to parse the data to make this price point attractive as a seller, unless you need to move supply quickly at any price I’d target 17,500 or better for new listings.

JC Midlithe_2.11.15

  • Ottegan Silk: stays just barely above its vendor liquidation unit price of 330 with a low offer of 345 overnight, still brutal.
  • Verpine Fiber: appears to be a market trying to find itself based on its big range over the past 10 days, as seen below.  The current low offer of 2,450 is a new low and likely a result of surging supply that is now twice the average amount available.  New sellers would probably only want to list at 7,500 or better based on pricing history because that’s the average in my data set, but even that price is not a big profit margin compared to the “big four” of the purple materials at the top.

JC Verpine_2.11.15

Blue Grade 11 Materials:

  • Biocell Memory Core: barely avoids arbitrage territory, which immediately makes it uninteresting.
  • Havod: ***ARBITRAGE*** current low offer well below vendor price, risk-free credits available here, buy anything below 165 credits for vendor arbitrage.
  • Hemostatic Gel: just avoids arbitrage territory, which immediately makes it uninteresting.
  • Hiridiu Crystal: no-win territory above vendor arbitrage price but less than 50% of unit cost from missions.
  • Trimantium: bounced back from yesterday’s arbitrage opportunity with a doubling of its lower offer to 349 by the end of the day on a 61% pullback in quantity available.
  • Veda Cloth: close enough to vendor sale price that net of the GTN’s commission the seller at the current low price of 171 should have just sold it to the vendor for more net profit.

Green Grade 11 Materials:

  • Anodyne Extract: strong sellers market by day’s end with the low offer 18% above the average at 700 on a 37% lighter quantity offered than average.  I still think any listing price 600 or better is a good entry point for new listings.
  • Enigmatic Artifact Fragment: current lowest offer price of 974 is worst sellers market in The Harbinger data set and 26% below its average low offered despite supply being down over 50% as well.  Bad time to sell it if you can hold out for prices back above 1,200 or better.
  • Farium: finished Wednesday at a slight discount to its average low offer, but very close to last Wednesday’s low offer too.  Last week got worse on Thursday and Friday with low offers falling further to 525 from current 601 before rebounding over the weekend.
  • Luminous Blue Crystal, Luminous Green Crystal, & Luminous Red Crystal: lack arbitrage opportunities, not much more than glorified credit junk at this point, but gather it up and vendor it for some decent credits on top of dailies.
  • Metamorphic Cell Culture: current low offer is the highest recorded in my Harbinger data by over 50% with an overnight low offer resting at 299 credits with supply roughly in line with its average.  Great sellers market for this server on a relative basis anywhere above 150, but only profitable if you’ve gathered it for free because its blended unit cost from missions is still 531 credits.
  • Molytex: offers a solid 9% premium to its average low offer price at its current 1,400 level with supply in line with average levels.  Good snap back from yesterday’s 964 levels as I had hoped it would in yesterday’s alert in recommending patience, anywhere about 1,200 is a good seller’s entry point.
  • Ruusan Crystal: has regressed slightly from the prior few days exceptional low offer points for sellers on a surge in supply by over 7x yesterday’s level and twice its average.  If that is people using these alerts in the marketplace I will be ecstatic to see it being put to use, so let me know if you listed Ruusan Crystal on The Harbinger after reading yesterday!  The price is back to the average for the data set, but still an attractive selling point if you look at the graph below and see where it was last week.

JC Ruusan_2.11.15

Other Notable Items:

  • MK-10 Kits: has moved back toward the top end of its very narrow range with a low offer of 46,800 which looks like its non-Monday/Tuesday equilibrium low offer price with those two days pulling down the average noticeably.
  • MK-10 Components: also benefited from some mean reversion with an overnight low offer of 4,190 compared to 3,749 on 2/10/15 GTN Alerts.  Assuming the optimal critical chance crafting scenario this component price equates to a kit price in the mid 30’s, so the profit margin on kits is much better currently.
  • Synth-net Implant Processor, Vanadium Flux, and Zoosha Solution: no arbitrage and none being sold for better price to the buyer than the crafting material vendor price of 800, no reason to go here.

Thanks for reading, I truly appreciate all of the interest in this content.

– Andrew | SWTOR Economics

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